As the global coffee market continues to evolve, Vietnam remains a pivotal player, particularly for roasters seeking reliable sources of robusta and arabica beans. With the 2025/2026 harvest season set to commence in October, industry stakeholders, including Australian coffee roasters from small-batch operations to commercial enterprises, are closely monitoring production trends. This forecast not only highlights potential increases in output but also underscores the ongoing weather challenges within Vietnam's coffee sector. Drawing on data from authoritative sources like the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and industry analyses, this article provides an in-depth, educational overview of the anticipated harvest, its key drivers, and the influence of weather patterns, offering professional insights to inform sourcing decisions.
Vietnam's coffee industry, centred in the Central Highlands, produces primarily robusta beans, which account for the majority of its exports. For the 2025/2026 marketing year (October 2025 to September 2026), production is projected to reach 31 million 60-kilogram bags of green bean equivalent (GBE), marking a recovery from recent downturns. This represents a 7% increase from the estimated 29 million bags in the 2024/2025 season, driven by improved yields and farmer investments spurred by higher global prices. Such projections are echoed across reports, with robusta dominating at approximately 30 million bags and arabica contributing the remaining 1 million.
Robusta Green Coffee Bean Production for Crop Years 2023/24 – 2025/26
| Indicator | Crop Year 2023/24 | Crop Year 2024/25 | Crop Year 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crop year begins | October 2023 | October 2024 | October 2025 |
| Harvested area (ha) | 611,500 | 615,000 | 620,000 |
| Production (million bags) | 28.5 | 28 | 30 |
| Average yield (tonnes/ha) | 2.75 | 2.73 | 2.90 |
Source: Estimates and forecasts from USDA.
To appreciate this outlook, it's essential to understand the varietal characteristics and the weather factors at play, as these directly impact the quality and availability of beans for Australian roasters.
Understanding Vietnamese Coffee Varieties: Robusta and Arabica
Vietnam's coffee output is overwhelmingly dominated by robusta, comprising about 95% of production, with arabica making up the remaining 5%. This varietal split is a direct result of the country's topography and climate, which favour robusta's robustness over arabica's delicacy. Robusta (Coffea canephora) thrives at lower elevations (200-800 metres) with higher temperatures and humidity, conditions prevalent in the Central Highlands. It is known for its higher caffeine content—typically 2-4% compared to arabica's 1-2%—and bolder flavour profile, often described as nutty, woody, and with notes of dark chocolate or earthiness. Robusta beans are rounder and smaller, with a straight crease, and the plants are more resistant to pests and diseases, yielding higher outputs per hectare.
In contrast, arabica (Coffea arabica) requires higher altitudes (1,000-2,000 metres), cooler temperatures, and more shade, limiting its cultivation to select areas like the highlands of Lâm Đồng and Sơn La. Arabica beans are larger, oval-shaped with a curved crease, and offer a smoother, more acidic taste with floral, fruity, or citrus undertones. However, arabica plants are more susceptible to environmental stresses, resulting in lower yields and higher production costs. In Vietnam, arabica varieties such as Catimor and Bourbon are grown, often in shaded systems to enhance quality.
The differences extend to processing and roasting. Robusta's thicker cell walls make it ideal for darker roasts, where its bitterness complements espresso blends, while arabica shines in lighter roasts that preserve its nuanced flavours. For Australian roasters, robusta provides cost-effective body and crema in blends, whereas arabica adds specialty appeal. Recent shifts in perception have elevated robusta's status, with fine robusta grades gaining recognition for their complexity when sourced from high-quality farms. Production statistics reflect this: Vietnam's robusta output stands at around 80% of total coffee in some estimates, though robusta remains the economic driver.
Production Outlook for 2025/2026: Data and Drivers
The anticipated 31 million bags for 2025/2026 signal a rebound after two subdued seasons. The USDA attributes this to favourable early-year rains supporting flowering and bean set, coupled with farmer investments in irrigation and fertilisers amid elevated prices. "Vietnam production is forecast to continue recovering to reach 31.0 million bags in 2025/26 due to higher yields attributed to favourable weather," states a recent USDA report. Similarly, industry analysts project an 8.3% rise, emphasising Robusta role in this uptick.
Key drivers include expanded acreage in response to demand and improved agronomic practices. Exports are expected to hit 27 million bags, contributing to global supply stability. High global prices, favourable weather, and expanded use of inputs are driving production gains, especially in the Central Highlands. However, this forecast assumes no major disruptions, highlighting the need for vigilance regarding weather patterns.
Weather and Climate Challenges in the Central Highlands
Weather variability remains a primary risk. The Central Highlands, responsible for 95% of Vietnam's coffee, have faced erratic patterns exacerbated by climate change. In 2023/2024 and 2024/2025, droughts reduced yields by up to 20%, with hot, dry conditions stressing crops. From drought to typhoons, erratic weather and the effects of climate change have hampered Vietnam's coffee harvest in recent years. Vietnam's booming coffee industry faces growing threats from climate change, including droughts, floods and rising temperatures.
For 2025, early rains have been promising, but as of August 2025, concerns are mounting over potential typhoon impacts and more concentrated rainfall events—heavier but less frequent storms—with extended dry periods possible. Vietnam's coffee prices are climbing as the nation braces for potential typhoon impacts, affecting an already tense global market. Potential typhoons or prolonged dry spells during the harvest window (October-March) could affect drying and quality. Long-term, rising temperatures and reduced forest cover amplify vulnerabilities, with projections indicating significant yield losses by 2050 without adaptation. Farmers are increasingly adopting drought-resistant varieties and irrigation systems to mitigate these risks.
Implications for Australian Roasters
With Vietnam's forecast increase, roasters can anticipate greater availability of premium robusta and arabica, potentially stabilising prices after recent highs. Small-batch operations might explore specialty arabica for unique profiles, while commercial ones leverage robusta for blends. Strategies like forward contracts can hedge against volatility, securing quantities at fixed prices.
In summary, the 2025/2026 harvest promises growth amid weather challenges, underscoring Vietnam's enduring significance in the global market. For those interested in sourcing Vietnamese green coffee beans, exploring options with importers focused on quality and flexibility can provide valuable insights. Contact specialists for detailed quotes or samples to align with your roasting needs.
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