Vietnam's 2025/26 Coffee Harvest Season: Peak Picking Underway Amid Challenging Weather

As Vietnam's Central Highlands enter the heart of the 2025/26 coffee harvest season, farmers across Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Lam Dong, and Dak Nong provinces are in full swing. Vietnam, the world's leading producer and exporter of Robusta coffee (accounting for over 95% of national output), has officially kicked off the new crop year (October 2025–September 2026). Early indications pointed to a strong recovery, but recent extreme weather events have introduced significant risks to yield, quality, and global supply chains.

At VIETCOFFEETRADERS, we source directly from these regions and monitor conditions closely to ensure consistent supply for our Australian and international partners. Here's a detailed, verified overview of the current season based on official reports from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa), and real-time weather impacts.

Peak Harvest Season in Vietnam

Vietnam's Robusta coffee harvest typically runs from October to February/March, with the absolute peak occurring between November and January. This is when the majority of cherries ripen and are hand-picked across the basalt-rich soils of the Central Highlands.

• Harvest begins gradually in early October in lower-elevation areas.
• November–December sees the heaviest volume, often called the "golden season" as labour demand surges and farms buzz with activity.
• Picking wraps up by February–March in higher elevations, followed by processing and sun-drying.

The 2025/26 season started promisingly, with cherries showing good size and uniformity due to favourable early-year rainfall and farmer investments spurred by high prices in recent years.

Production Outlook for 2025/26

Reliable forecasts as of late 2025 project a solid rebound from the drought-hit previous cycles:

Almost all output is Robusta, with exports expected at 24–27 million bags. This would ease global Robusta shortages that drove prices to multi-year highs in 2024/25.

Disruptive Weather in November 2025

While the season began under optimistic conditions, November 2025 has brought severe disruptions from a series of storms and unseasonal heavy rains — the opposite extreme from the prolonged droughts that plagued 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops.

Key events:

• Typhoon Kalmaegi (early November): Made landfall near Dak Lak and Gia Lai with high winds and torrential rain. Initial assessments showed the core coffee belt largely escaped the worst winds, but heavy precipitation caused localised flooding and cherry drop.
• Subsequent floods and relentless rain (mid–late November): Days of extreme downpours (up to 1,792 mm in parts of Dak Lak since mid-November) triggered landslides, flooded plantations, and toppled trees on smaller farms. As of November 20–21, death tolls from nationwide flooding exceeded 40, with over 60,000 evacuations.
• Harvest delays widespread: Farmers report inability to access fields, slowed picking, and interrupted sun-drying — critical for preventing mold and defects in Robusta beans.

Traders in Dak Lak confirm "heavy rain is continuing, slowing down the harvest" and raising quality concerns (Reuters/Bloomberg, Nov 19–21, 2025).

Weather Forecast and Ongoing Risks (Late November 2025 – April 2026)

The Central Highlands normally transitions into its dry season from November onward, ideal for harvesting and drying. However:

• Short-term (through late November): More heavy rain and flood risks persist in parts of the Highlands due to active La Niña influences and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
• Medium-term (December 2025 – April 2026): Forecasts lean toward drier conditions overall, aligning with the typical dry season. Neutral-to-weak La Niña may bring occasional showers but not the extremes seen in November.

If rains subside quickly, drying can resume effectively. Prolonged wet weather into December, however, could lead to widespread mold, bean discolouration, and lower grades.

Potential Impacts on Vietnam's Coffee and the Industry This Season

1. Yield Reduction: Pre-November forecasts of +7–10% growth may be trimmed. Losses from flooded farms, fallen cherries, and tree damage could shave 5–15% off peak-month volume in affected areas.
2. Quality Concerns: Excess moisture during harvest/drying increases risks of defective beans (black, sour, moldy), potentially pushing more volume into lower-grade categories and reducing premium Robusta availability.
3. Delayed Shipments: Slowed harvest and drying will postpone new-crop arrivals, tightening near-term global supply and supporting elevated prices.
4. Price Implications: Domestic prices spiked above 119,000 VND/kg in early November amid storm fears. Global Robusta futures remain volatile but elevated.
5. Broader Industry Effects: As the dominant Robusta supplier, any shortfall affects instant coffee, espresso blends, and roasters worldwide. It also highlights climate vulnerability — Vietnam has faced alternating droughts and floods in recent cycles.

Outlook from VIETCOFFEETRADERS

Despite November's challenges, Vietnam's 2025/26 crop remains on track for recovery and could still deliver one of the largest harvests in years if dry weather prevails through the peak months. Our direct relationships with Highlands farmers and processors allow us to navigate disruptions and secure high-quality lots.

We are closely tracking post-rain recovery and will provide updates as the season progresses. For Australian importers, roasters, and cafes seeking reliable Vietnamese Robusta — contact us today.

Stay tuned for our next crop report in December.

VIETCOFFEETRADERS – Your Trusted Source for Premium Vietnamese Coffee www.vietcoffeetraders.com.au